Changes in relative deprivation and their associations with aggression among newly incarcerated Chinese male offenders: evidence from a latent transition analysis

This study aimed to identify latent profiles of relative deprivation among newly incarcerated offenders and to examine how transitions were associated with impulsive and premeditated aggression over time. A two-wave longitudinal survey was conducted among 283 Chinese male offenders at prison entry (T1) and three months later (T2). Latent profile analysis and latent transition analysis were used to identify profiles and transitions, and multivariate analysis of covariance was used to compare aggression across profiles and transition groups. Three ordered profiles – low, moderate, and high relative deprivation – were identified at both time points. Across waves, 102 offenders (stable-low group, 36.04%) remained in the low profile, 36 (stable-moderate group, 12.72%) remained in the moderate profile, 6 (stable-high group, 2.12%) remained in the high profile, 63 (low-to-high group, 22.26%) showed an upward transition, and 76 (high-to-low group, 26.86%) showed a downward transition. Higher-deprivation profiles and upward-transition patterns were associated with higher impulsive and premeditated aggression scores. Moreover, the temporal associations between relative deprivation and impulsive and premeditated aggression exhibited both immediate and residual patterns over time. These findings support the value of early classification and targeted intervention to manage aggression and promote adjustment during initial incarceration.