What does this research mean for the field?

Multiple distinct Earth system states, such as differing Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) responses, can satisfy the same global temperature targets under stratospheric aerosol injection, demonstrating that climate responses to these interventions are not strictly linear. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.CONTRADICTORY. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.CHALLENGES_CONSENSUS.

What question did this study set out to answer?

Evaluate the long-term climate impacts and non-linear system responses of various stratospheric aerosol injection strategies designed to manage global and regional temperatures over 150 years.

August 19, 2026Earth System DynamicsOpen Access

Exploring divergent long-term stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios with the G2-SAI and ARISE-hybrid experiments

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Authors

WLWalker LeeNSF National Center for Atmospheric Research STSimone TilmesNSF National Center for Atmospheric Research EBEwa M. BednarzCooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences

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Implication

Climate simulation study reveals divergent Atlantic circulation responses under identical temperature targets, demonstrating non-linear Earth system impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection.

Key Points

Evaluate the long-term climate impacts and non-linear system responses of various stratospheric aerosol injection strategies designed to manage global and regional temperatures over 150 years.
Conducted three 150-year G2-SAI simulations using the Community Earth System Model (CESM2) to offset a 1% per year CO2 increase in a preindustrial control background.
Tested two three-degree-of-freedom strategies (injecting at 30° N, 15° N, 15° S, and 30° S) and one single-degree-of-freedom strategy (injecting at 30° N and 30° S).
Created an updated ARISE-hybrid ensemble by adjusting injection latitude distribution while holding global and meridional temperature targets constant.
Both three-degree-of-freedom simulations successfully maintained identical global and meridional temperature targets but produced divergent ocean circulation impacts.
A three-degree-of-freedom strategy injecting predominantly at 15° S only slowed the decline of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), whereas injecting primarily at 30° N and 30° S halted the AMOC decline entirely, matching the single-degree-of-freedom outcome.
Modifying injection distribution in the ARISE-hybrid ensemble produced significant differences in long-term regional climate responses without altering the primary temperature targets.

Cite This Study

Lee et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a8562eb03308d306e2d5e67 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-1117-2026

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Implication

Climate simulation study reveals divergent Atlantic circulation responses under identical temperature targets, demonstrating non-linear Earth system impacts of stratospheric aerosol injection.

Exploring divergent long-term stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios with the G2-SAI and ARISE-hybrid experiments

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Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Exploring divergent long-term stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios with the G2-SAI and ARISE-hybrid experiments

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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