The distributional impact of an ageing population: A study of national inclusion accounts in Jamaica

This study examines the distributional implications of population ageing in Jamaica using the National Inclusion Accounts framework to assess how demographic change interacts with socioeconomic inequality. By extending the National Transfer Accounts (NTA) approach to disaggregate age-specific consumption by educational attainment, consumption quartiles, and household type, the analysis reveals substantial gaps that are obscured in aggregate indicators. Jamaica’s demographic transition toward an older population is unfolding in a context of persistent income and wealth inequality, posing significant challenges for inclusive growth and equitable resource allocation across the life course. The findings indicate that private consumption inequalities are substantial and widen during the prime working years and into older age, potentially reflecting unequal access to labour income, assets, and savings. In contrast, public consumption in education and health remains progressive and plays a critical equalizing role across socioeconomic groups. As Jamaica approaches the projected end of its demographic dividend around 2035, these dynamics mark a critical inflection point: economic growth driven by a youthful labour force becomes increasingly difficult as fertility rates decline and the cohort of older persons expands. This transition will strain public finances, as a shrinking base of productive workers must support soaring expenditures on pensions, healthcare, and long-term care. Without significant policy interventions, such as enhancing productivity, integrating underrepresented groups like women and older persons into the workforce, and strengthening social protection systems, this demographic shift threatens to exacerbate fiscal shortfalls and deepen societal inequality.