Student attrition and persistence in open and distance higher education: evidence from a national-scale generalized ordered logit model

Student attrition remains a major challenge in open and distance higher education, not only because it affects student success and institutional effectiveness, but also because it weakens the contribution of higher education to sustainable and inclusive development. Although open and distance systems are designed to widen participation and expand lifelong learning opportunities, high attrition rates may limit their ability to support equitable educational outcomes. Against this background, this study examines the factors associated with student attrition and persistence in open and distance higher education using national-scale administrative data and a generalized ordered logit model. Drawing on institutional data from 126,607 students who first enrolled in 2023.S1 and were observed across six consecutive semesters, the study investigates how demographic, academic, and contextual characteristics are associated with different thresholds of attrition/persistence. The findings show that first-semester GPA was the strongest and most consistent predictor across all thresholds, while faculty affiliation, age, employment status, and place of residence also showed significant effects, some of which varied across stages of the persistence trajectory. These results indicate that attrition in open and distance higher education is shaped by multiple interrelated factors rather than by a single source of disadvantage. The study contributes to the student retention literature by providing large-scale empirical evidence from a national open university context and by showing that attrition is better understood as a threshold-sensitive process rather than a simple binary outcome. More broadly, the findings highlight the relevance of retention research for sustainable development by showing that widening access alone is insufficient unless students are also supported to remain engaged and continue their studies. The results offer practical implications for targeted intervention, early-warning systems, and equity-oriented support strategies, thereby contributing to ongoing efforts to strengthen inclusive, resilient, and sustainable higher education systems aligned with the goals of quality education and reduced inequalities.