Climatic niche stasis of Pinus rzedowskii (Pinaceae), a relictual and endangered species

Climate change has shaped the distribution of species over thousands of years, which may shift toward more suitable habitats or persist in refuges with climatic stability. In this study, we aim to identify changes under historical and future climate change scenarios, in the ecological niche of Pinus rzedowskii , a rare and endangered species from Mexico, for recognizing suitable sites for its permanence. Ecological niche consensus models were generated using three algorithms for the present, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and the future period of 2071–2100, utilizing a Global Circulation Model and two contrasting Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5). Based on these models, we estimated the centroid and niche overlap (Schoener’s D ). We found that Precipitation Seasonality has the most contribution to the ecological niche of the species, followed by the Aridity Index and Temperature Seasonality. We identified a trend toward a decrease in suitable area from the LGM to the present, followed by a slight increase toward the future. The LGM exhibited the lowest habitat quality, while the period 2071–2100 showed the highest. The spatial configuration of the niche was similar between the present and the future but different from that of the LGM. Nevertheless, the centroid and niche overlap indicate a high stability of the ecological niche over time. We conclude that the Sierra Madre del Sur, particularly the Michoacán subprovince, has experienced climatic stasis, acting as a climatic potential refuge for Pinus rzedowskii , where the central part of its distribution has shown the least temporal variation.