Expanding equity in access without losing predictive power? Evidence from Chile’s higher education admission system

Chile has undergone transformations in its higher education admission system, transitioning from an elitist model to a framework where over 90% of those who take the admission tests are eligible to apply to university. A key milestone is the implementation of the Higher Education Admission Test (PAES), which was designed to reduce academic barriers associated with socioeconomic gaps and historical inequities. Alongside tuition free policies and other equity in access reforms, Chile diversified its student population by incorporating alternative admission pathways. Nevertheless, all applicants must participate in the testing process to be considered for admission. Thus, it is essential to evaluate whether the tests maintain their predictive power despite these compositional shifts. This paper provides the first evidence on the predictive capacity of the PAES. By contrasting the regular admission group against all centralised admission pathways, the results show that predictive relationships remain stable across the entire admitted population.