Penguins on the Move: Mapping Priority Penguin Habitat Areas Under Climate Change

Aim To identify and map Priority Penguin Habitat Areas (PPHAs), defined as marine regions that are environmentally suitable for penguins under present and future climates, in order to inform climate‐smart conservation planning across Southern Hemisphere. Location Marine realms of the Southern Hemisphere. Methods We modelled occurrence data for 12 of the 21 currently recognised penguin species using a Bayesian joint species distribution framework to estimate present and future suitable habitats under two contrasting climate scenarios (SSP1‐2.6, low forcing; SSP5‐8.5, high forcing). We quantified species‐level expansions and contractions in suitable habitat, then integrated these projections into a systematic conservation planning optimisation framework to delineate present and future PPHAs and to assess their spatial overlap with existing (implemented and proposed) Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Results Most species (King, Southern Rockhopper, Macaroni, Snares, Chinstrap, Gentoo, Yellow‐eyed and Magellanic penguins) are projected to gain environmentally suitable habitat, whereas Emperor, Fiordland, Little and Adélie penguins show marked contractions and, in some scenarios, complete loss of optimal conditions. Consistent with a homogenization of habitat suitability for the expanding species, PPHAs increase in extent and cluster in established sub‐Antarctic and temperate hotspots. Despite this expansion, current MPA coverage of PPHAs is low and is projected to decline further under both climate scenarios. Main Conclusions Climate‐driven shifts in penguin habitats will alter the spatial configuration and protection needs of PPHAs across the Southern Hemisphere. Our approach provides a transferable blueprint to align conservation priorities with expected climate trajectories, enabling proactive MPA design and coordinated transboundary actions to safeguard PPHAs before they are irreversibly lost.