Forests are essential for global ecological stability, carbon balance, and the sustainable supply of roundwood resources. Forests in Japan are undergoing a policy-driven transition aimed at enhancing forest health and roundwood supply. This study presents the Forest Management Model for Cyclical Forestry (FM2-CF), a backcasting simulation model designed to support this transition over a 100-year horizon. The model integrates forest structural factors, forestry operational factors, and regulatory factors to investigate the long-term implications regarding Japan’s forest resources under the transition. It characterizes the national age-class transition of single-storied forests, quantifying roundwood supply and CO 2 fixation potential. Regional analyses across all 47 prefectures reveal pronounced spatial disparities in forest resources, indicating the necessity of localized strategies. In addition, FM2-CF evaluates the required forestry operational efforts measured by forest area, labor force, and cost. The simulated forestry management has revealed a shift of operational focus from reforestation and weeding in the early stages toward more balanced harvesting and thinning activities in matured forests. Scenario-based projections of roundwood supply–demand dynamics have highlighted surpluses and shortfalls across regions and time. Our results provided insights into the sufficiency and timing of supply relative to evolving policy-related utilization demand. While the model is primarily structured as a supply-side strategic planning tool, it provides a valuable roadmap for aligning long-term forest renewal with sustainable management practices and assessing policy feasibility. Future extensions may incorporate growth modeling and demand-side mechanisms to improve applicability across broader contexts and other countries.
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Han et al. (2026) studied this question.
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