Aligning centralized admissions with industry needs: A systemic structural model of major choice and graduate employability

Centralized, exam-driven admissions can distort field-of-study choices and widen skill mismatches at the university–industry interface. Using Iran as an illustrative case with transferability to other centralized systems, we build an expert-informed structural model linking national admissions policy, sociocultural norms, school guidance, and individual appraisals to major choice and graduate employability. Phase 1 applied a PRISMA-guided review of 64 sources to surface candidate factors. Phase 2 implemented a DEMATEL study with 15 stakeholders to evaluate structural relations and map dispatcher–mediator–receiver roles. Admissions policy emerged as the dominant upstream lever; prestige and parental influence were strong dispatchers; high-school guidance acted as a mediator; and interest, self-efficacy, and risk aversion were receivers. Because weak labor-market intelligence amplifies mismatch, implications for industry–higher-education cooperation include co-designed guidance, shared labor-market dashboards, and demand-led work-integrated learning. The framework offers a diagnostic for aligning talent pipelines with evolving industry needs.