Property company performance and real interest rates: a regime-switching approach

Quantitative analysis of property performance has tended to rely on linear models. This paper explores the possible insights of using non-linear, regime based models. It is argued that there may exist different regimes depending on the level of real interest rates. This is tested empirically using a Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) model on property company data. It is found that behaviour differs in high interest rate and low interest rate regimes.