Personalised follow-up and management schema for patients with screen-detected pulmonary nodules: A dynamic modelling study

Selecting the time target for follow-up testing in lung cancer screening is challenging. We aim to devise dynamic, personalized lung cancer screening schema for patients with pulmonary nodules detected through low-dose computed tomography. We developed and validated dynamic models using data of pulmonary nodule patients (aged 55–74 years) from the National Lung Screening Trial. We predicted patient-specific risk profiles at baseline (R0) and updated the risk evaluation results in repeated screening rounds (R1 and R2). We used risk cutoffs to optimize time-dependent sensitivity at an early decision point (3 months) and time-dependent specificity at a late decision point (1 year). In validation, area under receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting 12-month lung cancer onset was 0.867 (95 % confidence interval: 0.827–0.894) and 0.807 (0.765–0.948) at R0 and R1-R2, respectively. The personalized schema, compared with National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) guideline and Lung-RADS, yielded lower rates of delayed diagnosis (1.7% vs. 1.7% vs. 6.9 %) and over-testing (4.9% vs. 5.6% vs. 5.6 %) at R0, and lower rates of delayed diagnosis (0.0% vs. 18.2% vs. 18.2 %) and over-testing (2.6% vs. 8.3% vs. 7.3 %) at R2. Earlier test recommendation among cancer patients was more frequent using the personalized schema (vs. NCCN: 29.8% vs. 20.9 %, p = 0.0065; vs. Lung-RADS: 33.2% vs. 22.8 %, p = 0.0025), especially for women, patients aged ≥65 years, and part-solid or non-solid nodules. The personalized schema is easy-to-implement and more accurate compared with rule-based protocols. The results highlight value of personalized approaches in realizing efficient nodule management.