Relative value of clinical and transesophageal echocardiographic variables for risk stratification in patients with infective endocarditis

BACKGROUND: Infective endocarditis remains a life-threatening disease, and its optimal management is of paramount importance. Transesophageal echocardiography (TEE) is useful for the diagnosis of endocarditis-induced lesions, but the prognostic significance of the method remains controversial. HYPOTHESIS: The purpose of this study was to relate clinical and TEE characteristics to the occurrence of mortality and/or systemic embolization in a consecutive series of 45 patients with a diagnosis of infective endocarditis. METHODS: All patients underwent at least one monoplane TEE. Clinical data, episodes of embolization, and echocardiographic characteristics were prospectively recorded. Stepwise logistic discriminant analysis was performed to identify the independent variables that best predicted three binary outcomes: systemic embolization, death, and systemic embolization and/or death. RESULTS: Twelve of the 45 patients (27%) died from the endocarditis. Significant univariate predictors of death were the presence of paravalvular abscess (p = 0.025), number of vegetations (p = 0.021), Staphylococcus aureus isolated in blood cultures (p = 0.002), medical treatment alone (p < 0.002), and systemic embolism (p < 0.001). In multivariate analysis, systemic embolism (chi 2 = 29.3; p < 0.01), echocardiographic evidence of paravalvular abscess (chi 2 = 5.6; p = 0.018), Staphylococcus aureus endocarditis (chi 2 = 5.5; p = 0.016), and medical treatment alone (chi 2 = 5.11; p = 0.024) emerged as optimal predictors of death. Systemic embolization occurred in 12 patients. Independent variables predicting systemic embolization were a total length of vegetations > 14 mm (p = 0.01), greater age (p = 0.02), and medical treatment alone (p = 0.03). When two or more vegetations were observed, the total length is the sum of the individual sizes. Independent risk factors for the development of systemic emboli and/or death as a combined end point were total length of vegetations on TEE (chi 2 = 6.4; p = 0.003) and medical treatment alone (chi 2 = 4.1; p = 0.047). CONCLUSIONS: High-risk patients may be identified by the combination of clinical variables and TEE characteristics.