Probabilistic modeling study demonstrates reliable substation transformer capacity sizing based on expected life loss, suggesting an effective alternative to conservative deterministic criteria.
A method is presented for computing reliability indices, probability, duration frequency, and the loss of transformer expected life. The probabilistic model takes into account the variables affecting the loss of transformer expected life, daily load curve, transformer forced outage rate, outage duration, occurrence time of forced outage and expected overload duration. Comparing the results of this model with those of Monte Carlo simulation an acceptable degree of accuracy is achieved. From the reliability indices, a reliability criterion is obtained for rating transformers in substations, which have traditionally been rated on the basis of conservative deterministic criteria.>
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Elmakis et al. (1988) studied this question.
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