Estimating the economic damage caused by climate change to Korean aquaculture

The impact of climate change is significant, potentially threatening the growth and stability of future aquaculture and leading to economic shifts. Despite the expansion of aquaculture in Korea, rising sea temperatures are causing damage to species, making it essential to identify and mitigate potential future damage. We evaluated the damage cost of primary aquaculture species (e.g. Korean rockfish, mullet, red seabream, sea bass, black seabream, rock bream, kelp, laver, sea mustard, Pacific oyster, Mediterranean mussel, abalone, Japanese littleneck clam, bay scallop, sea squirt) by province taking into account damage probabilities and production value. The total damage costs are projected to range from 689,899 million KRW (515.97 million USD) to 1,630,130 million KRW (1,219.15 million USD), which represent 32% and 76% of the total production value, respectively, depending on the scenarios. Among the species, abalone is estimated to have the highest cost. To mitigate damage costs, it is crucial to establish appropriate adaptation measures tailored to different timeframes. These measures include selecting alternative production locations, switching to more resilient species that can withstand higher temperatures, and considering alternative production grounds, such as land-based infrastructure.