Evaluation of Uncertainty in Dynamic Simulations of Power System Models: The Probabilistic Collocation Method

This paper explores the use of a new technique, the probabilistic collocation method (PCM), to enable the evaluation of uncertainty in power system simulations. The PCM allows the uncertainty in transient behavior of power systems to be studied using only a handful of simulations. The relevant theory is outlined here and simple examples are used to illustrate the application of PCM in a power systems setting. In addition, an index for identification of key uncertain parameters, as well as an example with a more realistic power system, are presented.