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Demographics are not quite destiny but do exert a powerful influence on future housing demand. This paper examines how demographics shape demand and projects household growth, second home and additional vacant unit demand, and replacement demand from 2010 to 2020 under different assumptions. To analyze the housing supply-demand balance entering 2010, results are presented from a backward look at long-run construction demand compared to actual new construction and from a simple econometric model of long-run demand for starts using pooled metropolitan area data from 1982 to 2000. Implications of the housing and mortgage market meltdown for homeownership in the years ahead are also explored.
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Eric S. Belsky (2009) studied this question.
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