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October 1, 2002Weather and ForecastingOpen Access

Recognition of Negative Mesoscale Factors for Severe-Weather Potential: A Case Study

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Authors

CDCharles A. DoswellPublic CitizenDBDonald V. BakerUnited States Department of Veterans AffairsCLCharlie A. LilesNational Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

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Implication

Observational analysis reveals that early mesoscale cool air pools suppress tornado production in long-lived supercells, highlighting critical challenges for operational severe-weather forecasting.

Key Points

  • Examine how localized mesoscale processes, specifically lingering cool air and cloud cover, suppress tornado potential during severe convective weather events.
  • Analyzed surface and atmospheric conditions from a severe convective event on 7–8 June 1998 across eastern New Mexico and western Texas.
  • Evaluated radar and environmental observations to track the evolution of a long-lived supercell as it crossed a dryline and interacted with a pre-existing stable air mass.
  • Early morning thunderstorms maintained persistent cloud cover that inhibited solar heating and surface-based destabilization.
  • A persistent supercell produced extensive large hail as an elevated storm over the cool surface layer but generated only brief, weak tornadoes.

Cite This Study

Doswell et al. (2002) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a8878da33299ecf904fe824https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2002)017<0937:ronmff>2.0.co;2
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