Mathematical modeling reveals metastable persistence prior to extinction in populations with Allee effects, highlighting key drivers of extinction risk.
We develop a stochastic diffusion model with two component Allee effects via a continu- um limit of a discrete Markov process. The boundary classification proves that zero is exit and infinity is entrance. Using intrinsic ultracontractivity of the associated semigroup, we establish the existence and uniqueness of a quasi-ergodic distribution, characterizing metastable persistence prior to extinction. Scaling laws for the mean extinction time with respect to key parameters-initial population size, mate-finding efficiency, and predation intensity-are derived. This work provides a rigorous mathematical framework for ana- lyzing transient dynamics and extinction in populations subject to strong Allee effects and environmental stochasticity.
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Guijie Lan (2026) studied this question.
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