Spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of vegetation EVI in Xinjiang under different geographic subregions

Xinjiang is a typical arid region. Exploring its vegetation dynamics can deepen our understanding of vegetation evolution in arid zones and provide a scientific basis for formulating targeted vegetation conservation policies for such regions. However, large-scale regional analyses usually adopt a unified analytical framework for the entire study area, which fails to identify the detailed drivers of vegetation changes across distinct geographical subregions. Accordingly, this paper explores the relationships between vegetation dynamics and natural as well as anthropogenic factors in Xinjiang from 2000 to 2022, and reveals the impacts of various factors on the spatial distribution of vegetation at the geographical subregional scale. The results show that: (1) The average value of vegetation enhanced vegetation index (EVI) in Xinjiang during the 23-year period was 0.061, and the area of improved vegetation was much larger than the area of degraded areas. (2)In terms of trend prediction, vegetation in Xinjiang is generally improving at present, but approximately 36.57% of its land area is projected to undergo degradation in the future. (3) In terms of driving mechanism, land use type, nighttime light and soil factors have the most significant influence on EVI of whole-region vegetation. This study can provide a scientific basis for vegetation conservation and management in the Northwest Arid Zone.