Life Cycle of Retrogressive Thaw Slumps in a Warmer and Wetter Climate on the Central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Retrogressive thaw slumps, triggered by thawing ice-rich permafrost, have become increasingly widespread across the central Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. However, the spatiotemporal evolution of slumps remains poorly understood. Here we compiled a 1964–2024 slump inventory for the Beiluhe region using multi-temporal satellite imagery with deep learning-assisted manual interpretation. By tracking the evolution of hundreds of slumps, we found that 90% stabilized within 12 years, with an average longevity of six years. Among all of the stabilized slumps, only 13.1% reactivated, yet over 75% of these reactivations occurred after 2000. The newly initiated slumps shifted to higher elevations and well-drained areas, reflecting increased frequency of permafrost degradation in previously stable zones. Results suggest that high annual precipitation promotes new RTS initiation, while the permafrost thermal regime exerts a strong control on the magnitude of annual RTS activity ( R T S N = e 3.198× T +4.923 − 1, p <0.05). The spatial and temporal patterns in slump dynamics on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau reveal compelling evidence of accelerated permafrost degradation under a warmer and wetter climate.