Forecasting Foundational Learning in India: A Pre-Registered Assessment of NIPUN Bharat

This registration locks a probabilistic forecast of Grade 3 reading attainment in rural India, to be adjudicated by the ASER 2026 survey round. India's NIPUN Bharat mission targets universal foundational literacy and numeracy by the end of Grade 3 in 2026-27. This study forecasts, for each of 22 Indian states, the probability of reaching a ladder of attainment thresholds (40%, 50%, 60%, 80%, 95%) by 2026-27, using a partially pooled trajectory model fitted on the logit scale to six ASER rounds (2012-2024), with COVID-19 treated as a level shock plus an explicit recovery parameter, and forecast uncertainty calibrated from an out-of-sample backtest. The forecast is fixed. The state-level prediction table is hash-locked with SHA-256 2eb6fd6d659358dabec9af9d07b6930f88267eaf2598174ada1259fead2c7c98, reproducible by a script in the public replication package. Six falsifiable claims (C1-C6) are stated below with the conditions under which each fails. The purpose is to make an education-policy forecast testable. Existing assessments of NIPUN Bharat progress report point estimates or scenario sets published after the fact. A forecast that cannot fail is not a forecast. Replication package (data, code, full pre-registration document, audit trail): https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/F3SKVS