Simulation study demonstrates spatial land-use and infrastructure modeling for sustainability goals, highlighting high-priority intervention zones for policy planning.
Key Points
To develop and evaluate GeoSDG, an integrated modeling framework that couples dynamic land-use and infrastructure simulations with spatial Sustainable Development Goal assessments.
Coupled cellular automata (CA) models of co-evolving land-use and infrastructure change with a spatial assessment framework tracking 27 indicators across ten land-related SDGs.
Simulated spatial sustainability trajectories from 2020 to 2050 under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) in the Yangtze River Delta.
Model validation achieved a Figure of Merit of 0.128 for land-use simulation and 0.263 for infrastructure expansion.
Scenario projections revealed substantial spatial heterogeneity and identified approximately 10% of the land area as high-priority zones requiring targeted sustainability interventions.