A Study of a Renal Unit

An improved simulation model for predicting future resource use in a Region with haemodialysis facilities and a vigorous transplant programme for patients with chronic renal failure has been developed. This new model differs from its predecessors in incorporating a procedure to match patients with kidneys, an important component of the actual system. It was used in a Region with a large number of dialysis patients and predicted that this number would gradually fall and, in due course, the number of patients on the transplant waiting list would stabilise. The number of permanent dialysis patients and patients with functioning transplanted kidneys would continually increase in number. It is also shown how the model could be used to predict the Regional costs of a dialysis/transplant programme.