Key result
A new risk prediction model incorporating 8 clinical parameters demonstrated good discrimination for 10-year incident atrial fibrillation risk with a Harrell's c-statistic of 0.785.
Why the study?
Risk prediction of incident AF is useful to prevent AF and its complications, motivating the development of a prediction model using prospective longitudinal data from a general Japanese population.
Cohort (n=2,442)
No
Effect estimate: c-statistic 0.785 (95% CI 0.731-0.840)
A new 8-variable risk prediction model demonstrated good discrimination and calibration for estimating the 10-year risk of incident atrial fibrillation in a general Japanese population.
May inform AF risk stratification in Japanese adults; leaves open external validation and outcome impact.
BACKGROUND: The risk prediction of incident atrial fibrillation (AF) is useful to prevent AF and its complications. The aim of this study is to develop a new risk prediction model for incident AF using the prospective longitudinal data from a general Japanese population. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 2,442 community-dwelling AF-free residents aged ≥40 years were followed up from 1988 to 2012 (46,422 person-years). The development of AF was confirmed by a standard 12-lead electrocardiogram at repeated health examinations and by medical records at clinics or hospitals. The risk prediction model for incident AF was developed using a Cox proportional hazards model. During the follow up, 230 AF events were confirmed. Age, sex, systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, estimated glomerular filtration rate, abnormal cardiac murmur, high R-wave amplitude, and arrhythmia other than AF were selected for inclusion in the model. This model showed good discrimination (Harrell's c statistics: 0.785) and calibration (Greenwood-Nam-D'Agostino test: P=0.87) for AF risk at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: The new risk prediction model showed good performance on the individual risk assessment of the future onset of AF in a general Japanese population. As this model included commonly used clinical parameters, it may be useful for determining the requirements for the careful evaluation of AF, such as frequent electrocardiogram examinations in clinical settings, and subsequent reductions in the risk of AF-related complications.
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A 2021 study conducted a cohort in Incident Atrial Fibrillation (n=2,442). Risk prediction model (age, sex, systolic blood pressure, waist circumference, eGFR, abnormal cardiac murmur, high R-wave amplitude, arrhythmia other than AF) was evaluated on Incident atrial fibrillation (AF) at 10 years (c-statistic 0.785, 95% CI 0.731-0.840). A new risk prediction model incorporating 8 clinical parameters demonstrated good discrimination for 10-year incident atrial fibrillation risk with a Harrell's c-statistic of 0.785.
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