Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease in Japanese Adults: The Hisayama Study

Supplemental Fig.1.. Flow chart of the study sample

Supplemental Fig.2. Selection rate of the candidate predictors in 200 bootstrapping samples. The solid black bar indicates variables that selected for ＞40% (i.e., ＞80 times) of the bootstrapping resampling procedure. Abbreviations: HDL cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol; LDL cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol.

Fig.1. Simplified point-based scoring system for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The predicted probability was determined using the following formula: P^ =1−0.9696 exp([total score＋points for age]×0.144−2.4767) , where the points of 0, 5, 11, 16, and 20 for age were assigned to the age ranges of 40-49, 50-59, 60-69, 70-79, and ≥ 80 years, respectively. Probabilities are presented in green (low risk: ＜2.0% of the 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk, corresponding to the lowest 35% of the distribution in the population), yellow (middle risk: 2.0%–10.0%), and red (high risk: ≥ 10%, corresponding to the highest 20% of the distribution in the population). ＊ In the alternative simplified score that included serum non-HDL cholesterol instead of serum LDL cholesterol, the points for the predefined categories of serum non-HDL cholesterol (＜150, 150–169, 170–189, and ≥ 190 mg/dL) were 0, 1, 2, and 3, respectively.

Supplemental Fig.3. Histogram of the 10-year ASCVD probabilities predicted by the simplified risk score. Bars were color-coded as green (low-risk: ＜2.0% of 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk, corresponding to the lowest 35% of distribution in the population), yellow (middle-risk: 2.0%–10.0%), and red (high-risk: ≥ 10%, corresponding to the highest 20% of distribution in the population)

Fig.2. Calibration plots of the predicted 10-year probability of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease predicted by the multivariable model (A) and the simplified scoring system (B). The dotted lines indicate the case of perfect calibration, corresponding to an intercept of zero and a slope of one for the calibration plot. The solid curves indicate the calibration curve fit by the loess smoother. Bars indicate the 95% confidence intervals of the observed probability in each group of the predicted probability. Abbreviation: GND, Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino.

Supplemental Fig.4.. Agreement between the final multivariable model using serum LDL cholesterol and the alternative model using serum non-HDL cholesterol as a predictor

Supplemental Fig.5.. Agreement between the simplified risk score using serum LDL cholesterol and the alternative simplified score using serum non-HDL cholesterol as a predictor