Geopolitics and space access: cost asymmetries and strategic dependence

Access to space is now a national security priority, yet its cost varies enormously across nations. Using a novel dataset of over 6,740 rocket launches (1960–2025), we estimate country-level launch costs and country-specific experience curves. In 2025, the average costs per kilogram to Low Earth Orbit ranged from $3,225 in the United States to over $13,000 in India, with Europe, Russia, China, and Japan in between. Since 2010, only the US and Europe display statistically significant experience curves, with the US improving far faster. These widening asymmetries reinforce strategic dependencies with economic and security implications.