Probabilistic framework for performance assessment of electrical power networks to tornadoes

The Electrical Power Network (EPN) constitutes a vital component of the nation’s critical infrastructure. Additionally, the resilience of the community to different natural and man-made hazards depends upon the reliability of the EPN. In this study, a probabilistic methodology is proposed for the performance assessment of EPN subject to tornadoes. The proposed methodology can be disaggregated into distinct analysis phases: hazard analysis, EPN characterization, hazard-network characterization, network analysis, and loss analysis. A hypothetical community with EPN is used to illustrate the methodology. Multi-layer Monte Carlo Simulation together with fragility functions of the components is used to calculate the probability of exceedance of the repair cost and time, to restore power to selected nodes. The methodology presented herein thus provides the ability to statistically characterize and model restoration for a given topology at a detailed enough level to be able to model dependency and potential interdependencies using mechanistic approaches.