Time-series analysis shows inverse relationships between seasonal market arrivals and tomato prices, indicating supply-driven volatility across regional wholesale agricultural markets.
Key Points
To evaluate secular trends, seasonal variations, and the relationship between wholesale tomato prices and market arrivals.
Analyzed monthly tomato arrival and price records from 2013–14 to 2019–20 across multiple regional agricultural markets in West Bengal, India.
Applied ordinary least squares (OLS) regression and twelve-month moving average techniques to assess long-term trends and seasonal fluctuations.
Wholesale prices exhibited statistically significant positive trends across most markets except Chakdah and Siliguri, while arrivals displayed significant negative trends in three markets and a significant positive trend only in Diamond Harbour.
Market arrivals demonstrated substantially higher seasonal variability than prices, with an inverse relationship showing that increased arrival volume consistently depresses market prices.