Multidimensional Assessment of Hydroclimatic Changes in Northern Cyprus

Climate change is driving hydroclimatic changes that are not fully captured by conventional trend analyses. This study presents a multidimensional assessment of hydroclimatic changes in Northern Cyprus using observational records from 27 precipitation stations and 12 temperature stations, with precipitation records spanning 35–46 years and temperature records spanning 21–30 years. Modified Mann–Kendall (MMK), Pettitt (PT), Innovative Trend Analysis (ITA), and Structural Trend and Variability Identification (STVI) methods were integrated to examine monotonic trends, abrupt shifts, distribution-dependent changes, and mean–variability interactions at annual and seasonal scales. Results revealed pronounced spatial heterogeneity and seasonal asymmetry in precipitation totals and their temporal evolution. Increasing tendencies were mainly concentrated in the Kyrenia mountainous region and parts of the western coast, whereas several eastern coastal stations showed drying tendencies, particularly in spring. Winter exhibited the most coherent wetting signal, while spring was more fragmented and drying-dominated. Monthly mean of daily maximum temperature (Tmax) and monthly mean of daily minimum temperature (Tmin) generally showed widespread warming, although Tmin responses were more localized and season-dependent. ITA indicated asymmetric precipitation behavior, with medium and high precipitation values generally increasing, while low values often decreased or showed mixed responses. STVI further revealed that precipitation changes involved substantial restructuring of both mean and variability components, whereas temperature changes were mainly mean-driven. The findings provide a more comprehensive understanding of evolving hydroclimatic conditions, which can support climate adaptation and water resources management in semi-arid Mediterranean regions.