Trans-Caspian Financial Corridors and Risk Management in the New Silk Road Project

Purpose: The primary objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of financial corridors emerging within the framework of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR) on regional economic integration and to identify mechanisms for managing the credit, currency, and geopolitical risks associated with this process. Methodology: The research applies a mixed quantitative methodology incorporating Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and comparative analytical methods. The empirical framework is based on data obtained from the World Bank’s Logistics Performance Index (LPI), annual reports of the Central Bank of Azerbaijan, IMF statistical databases, and operational indicators of regional logistics operators. Findings: The regression results indicate that investment inflows (β = 0.42, p = 0.001), transit volume (β = 0.31, p = 0.003), and the Logistics Performance Index (β = 0.27, p = 0.012) exert statistically significant positive effects on GDP growth (R² = 0.68). Monte Carlo simulations based on 10,000 scenarios demonstrate that the expected average economic growth rate may reach 4.3%, while the optimistic scenario projects growth up to 6.8%. Comparative analysis confirms that the Trans-Caspian corridor outperforms alternative routes in terms of delivery time (12–15 days), logistics costs (8–12% lower), and financial permeability. Scientific Contribution: This study introduces the concept of “financial permeability” as an independent methodological criterion for evaluating transport corridors within the Trans-Caspian region. It empirically demonstrates that financial integration constitutes an inseparable component of logistics efficiency and regional economic connectivity. Practical Implications: The findings provide a strategic framework for regional governments and financial institutions by emphasizing the integration of digital payment systems, the establishment of regional hedging mechanisms, and the harmonization of institutional standards.