Key result
Mathematical modeling of the vCJD epidemic in the UK projects a best estimate of 40 future deaths (95% prediction interval 9-540) based on case data alone, indicating the primary epidemic is in decline.
Population
121 vCJD deaths reported by the end of 2002 in the UK, and a survey of 8,318 appendix tissues.
Design
Other
Authors
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Suggests declining UK vCJD risk; leaves open refined projections and surveillance needs given wide uncertainty.
The primary vCJD epidemic in the known susceptible genotype in the UK appears to be in decline, with future death projections substantially lower than previous estimates.
Ghani et al. (2003) studied variant Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (vCJD) (n=121). Mathematical modeling of vCJD cases was evaluated on Projected future vCJD deaths (2003-2080) based on case data alone (95% CI 9-540). Mathematical modeling of the vCJD epidemic in the UK projects a best estimate of 40 future deaths (95% prediction interval 9-540) based on case data alone, indicating the primary epidemic is in decline.
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