Key result
Having a previous hamstring indirect muscle injury between 12 months and 3 years prior to screening increased the odds of future indirect muscle injuries and was the only variable adding prognostic value over age.
Cohort (n=134)
No
Periodic health examination data has limited utility for predicting indirect muscle injury risk in elite football players, with only age and previous hamstring injury showing prognostic value.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
Periodic exams have limited predictive value for muscle injuries in elite footballers; supports prior hamstring injury but leaves better models open.
This study used periodic health examination (PHE) data from 134 outfield elite male football players, over 5 seasons (1 st July 2013 to 19 th May 2018). Univariable and multivariable logistic regression models were used to determine prognostic associations between 36 variables and time-loss, lower extremity index indirect muscle injuries (I-IMIs). Non-linear associations were explored using fractional polynomials. During 317 participant-seasons, 138 I-IMIs were recorded. Univariable associations were determined for previous calf indirect muscle injury (IMI) frequency (OR=1.80, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.09 to 2.97), hamstring IMI frequency (OR=1.56, 95% CI=1.17 to 2.09), if the most recent hamstring IMI occurred > 12 months but < 3 years prior to PHE (OR= 2.95, 95% CI = 1.51 to 5.73) and age (OR =1.12 per 1-year increase, 95% CI = 1.06 to 1.18). Multivariable analyses demonstrated that if a player’s most recent previous hamstring IMI was >12 months but <3 years prior to PHE (OR= 2.24, 95% CI = 1.11 to 4.53), then this was the only variable with added prognostic value over and above age (OR=1.12 per 1-year increase, 95%CI = 1.05 to 1.18). Allowing non-linear associations conferred no advantage over linear ones. Therefore, PHE has limited use for injury risk prediction.
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Hughes et al. (2021) conducted a cohort in Indirect muscle injuries (n=134). Previous hamstring indirect muscle injury >12 months but <3 years prior to screening vs. No previous hamstring indirect muscle injury in that timeframe was evaluated on Time-loss, lower extremity index indirect muscle injuries (I-IMIs) (OR 2.24, 95% CI 1.11 to 4.53). Having a previous hamstring indirect muscle injury between 12 months and 3 years prior to screening increased the odds of future indirect muscle injuries and was the only variable adding prognostic value over age.
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