What question did this study set out to answer?

To assess municipal long-term water stress under combined scenarios of global climate change and regional development policies in semiarid northeastern Brazil.

June 1, 2004Water InternationalOpen Access

Water Scarcity Under Scenarios for Global Climate Change and Regional Development in Semiarid Northeastern Brazil

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To assess municipal long-term water stress under combined scenarios of global climate change and regional development policies in semiarid northeastern Brazil.
Formulated four global change scenarios evaluating climate projections alongside regional development interventions over a 25-year projection window (2001–2025).
Coupled climatic, hydrological, and water use models to calculate a standardized index of long-term water stress across 184 municipalities in the state of Ceará.
Without effective intervention measures, up to nearly 60% of municipalities in Ceará are projected to experience long-term water scarcity by 2025.
Municipalities face an average annual water shortage probability of 9% to 20% depending on the scenario, while the top 10% most stressed municipalities exceed an 80% annual probability.
Decentralized regional development policies successfully compensate for the adverse effects of climate trends on water availability across the 25-year evaluation period.

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Implication

Scenario analysis reveals long-term water scarcity across up to 60 percent of municipalities in Ceará, indicating that decentralized regional development can offset severe climatic trends.

Cite This Study

Araújo et al. (2004) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a8c375e0ca85c7e33df323f https://doi.org/10.1080/02508060408691770

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Implication

Scenario analysis reveals long-term water scarcity across up to 60 percent of municipalities in Ceará, indicating that decentralized regional development can offset severe climatic trends.

Water Scarcity Under Scenarios for Global Climate Change and Regional Development in Semiarid Northeastern Brazil

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

Water Scarcity Under Scenarios for Global Climate Change and Regional Development in Semiarid Northeastern Brazil

Key Points

Discussion

Implication

Cite This Study

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