The history of reliability prediction

Reliability predictions have been used successfully as a reliability engineering tool for 5 decades. It is only one element of a well-structured reliability program and, to be effective, must be complemented by other elements. This paper reviews the history of reliability predictions as they have been used as a reliability engineering tool and discusses the current status of several issues relating to reliability prediction-including the reasons for performing predictions, methodologies currently in use, causes of electronic-system failure, comparison of traditional prediction methodologies and improvement in the reliability of electronic components. There is, and has been, controversy regarding the appropriate approaches to be used in predicting the reliability of electronic systems. Because of this, a discussion is included that compares traditional approaches with physics-of-failure and summarizes several efforts underway within the industry to improve the manner in which predictions are performed.