Observed and projected climate variability and trends in Northwest Ethiopian Highlands and their implications for potato production and adaptation

Potato is a vital food crop in the Ethiopian highlands where diverse topographies make its cultivation highly sensitive to climate variabilities. Understanding spatiotemporal variations in rainfall and temperature is critical for developing climate-resilient potato farming strategies at the agroecosystem (AES) and seasonal level. In this study, observed rainfall and temperature variability and trend (1989–2018) and their projected changes under the shared socio-economic pathways (SSP) emission scenarios in the near-term (2019–2048) and mid-century (2049–2078) downscaled from MIROC6 were analyzed across the lower highland (Lower Dega) and upper highland (Upper Dega) AES in northwest Ethiopia. Historical data from Enhancing National Climate Services (ENACTS) showed low interannual rainfall variability with an annual coefficient of variation (CV) ranging from 14.72% to 18.14% and a strongly irregular intra-annual distribution. The Precipitation Concentration Index (PCI) ranges from 21.01% to 23.22% in both AESs. Severe agricultural drought events (3- and 6-month SPEI between − 1.5 and − 2.0) occurred repeatedly, with notable concentrations in the early 1990s, mid-2000s, and after 2010. Trend analysis indicated statistically significant increasing trends in both rainfall and maximum temperature. Annual rainfall increased by 67.7 mm and 169 mm per decade, while maximum temperature increased by 0.50 °C and 0.40 °C per decade in the Lower Dega and Upper Dega AESs, respectively. Future climate projections under the high-emissions (SSP5-8.5) scenario showed the largest impacts in the mid-century period. In this scenario, the main rainy season ( Kiremt ) rainfall is projected to increase by up to 19.58%, and annual maximum temperature by up to 1.49 °C. These trends of rising temperatures, irregular rainfall distribution, and recurring droughts are likely to disrupt potato growth and yields. These findings can support evidence-based, agroecology-specific adaptation strategies by integrating climate information into agricultural planning and promoting resilient farming practices to sustain potato productivity under increasing climate variability in northwest Ethiopian highlands.