Unraveling risk propagation in the copper value chain: A firm-level network analysis

This study examines the copper value chain through firm-level, temporal, and multi-tier network analysis to explore risk propagation and structural evolution. By incorporating relationship duration as an edge weight in a cascading failure model, this study identifies critical firms based on their connectivity and vulnerability to disruptions. This granular approach captures the roles of both public and private firms, emphasizing the interconnectedness of the value chain. Community detection and backbone filtration reveal that while cascading failures are generally contained within tightly connected groups, key firms in metal mining and industrial machinery show significant systemic influence. Additionally, the results highlight the critical role of supporting industries beyond the core copper supply chain in ensuring overall resilience. These insights highlight the necessity of dynamic and cross-sectoral risk mitigation strategies to enhance stability and minimize disruptions in the copper value chain.