Scenario‐based spatial modeling of human–elephant conflict across fragmented forest–agriculture landscapes in eastern India

Human–elephant conflict (HEC) has intensified across fragmented landscapes of eastern India owing to rapid agricultural expansion, habitat fragmentation, and increasing anthropogenic pressure. Understanding the spatial drivers of conflict is therefore essential for developing proactive management strategies within forest–agriculture interfaces. This study evaluated the influence of land‐use configuration, anthropogenic disturbance, and landscape fragmentation on HEC probability for Asian elephants ( Elephas maximus ) within the Rupnarayan Forest Division of eastern India using a scenario‐based maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling framework. This study integrated 138 verified HEC incidents recorded between 2013 and 2023 with climatic, anthropogenic, and land‐use variables. We quantified landscape fragmentation characteristics using FRAGSTATS and the landscape fragmentation tool to assess forest configuration, patch isolation, and edge‐dominated landscapes. We implemented MaxEnt modeling using 10‐fold cross‐validation to generate spatial conflict probability surfaces and identify dominant environmental predictors of HEC occurrence. Anthropogenic variables, particularly human footprint index, settlement proximity, and double‐cropped agricultural land, emerged as the strongest predictors of HEC probability. High‐risk conflict zones were primarily concentrated along fragmented forest–agriculture interfaces characterized by edge and perforated forests. Fragmentation analysis revealed a highly subdivided forest matrix with limited core habitat availability and reduced structural connectivity across the landscape. Scenario‐based simulations demonstrated that agricultural intensification increased the spatial extent of high‐risk conflict zones, whereas restoration‐oriented scenarios aimed at improving forest continuity reduced predicted conflict probability within fragmented interfaces. These findings indicate that changes in land‐use configuration can substantially alter HEC risk patterns. By integrating fragmentation analysis with scenario‐based spatial modeling, the present study provides a spatially explicit decision‐support framework for identifying priority areas for proactive HEC mitigation and landscape‐level planning in eastern India. The study emphasizes the importance of maintaining corridor continuity, regulating anthropogenic expansion, and reducing edge‐dominated fragmentation within rapidly transforming elephant habitats.