From forest to farmland: seasonal habitat suitability and risk areas of human–elephant conflict in the Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) of Thailand

The Eastern Economic Corridor (EEC) is currently undergoing drastic economic income development and some of the most rapid landuse changes in Thailand. This area is also amongst the highest for human–elephant conflict (HEC) especially around the Eastern Forest Complex (EFCOM). Studies regarding ecological risks to the wild Asian elephant ( Elephas maximus ) and the population’s impact on human well-being in the area are limited. Our goal is thus to assess habitat suitability by identifying seasonal HEC risk areas across three buffer zones (0–1, > 1–3, and > 3–5 km). Our objectives include identifying environmental factors, predicting habitat suitability and mapping risk areas, and applying these findings to inform land-use planning. This study utilized 400 questionnaires to identified locations and then incorporated these into the species distribution models of HEC in three stratified areas near the EFCOM boundary. Spatial distribution predictions and HEC risk maps were created using elephant encounters, land-use/land-cover (LULC) information, topographic, and bioclimatic factors alongside Binary Logistic Regression (BLR) and Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt). BLR was specifically employed to estimate the statistical significance and probability of environmental factors influencing the occurrence of HEC. Our results showed that types of forest areas and the prevalence of para rubber plantations were found to be key factors associated with elephant habitats across seasons; revealing a pseudo-habitat – or type of agricultural area, particularly in plantations, which is increasingly used by elephants due to the degradation and fragmentation of natural habitats. In our study it was most commonly found along forest edges, where it facilitates further incursions into farmland. Climatic controls were strongly seasonal, with dry season suitability aligned with cooler conditions (bio11) and limited precipitation (bio17). Whereas wet season suitability peaked under moderate temperatures (bio8) and precipitation variability (bio15). Water bodies further attracted elephants toward agricultural areas. In the wet season, distances of 0–1 and > 1–3 km from the EFCOM boundary were determined to be ‘very high risk’ areas. Chanthaburi had the highest risk of the included provinces, followed by Chachoengsao, Rayong and Sa Kaeo. Crop foraging was also dynamic. Banana and coconut plantations were at risk year round. Rice and southern langsat were risky in the wet season, with the risk then shifting to nearby longan and corn fields. Model performance was moderate for BLR ( AUC = 0.75–0.76) and high for MaxEnt ( AUC = 0.93–0.94). In conclusion, these findings underscore the need for LULC planning around the EFCOM, as well as increased community development toward higher-value crops and non-farm products to reduce HEC, enhance human well-being, conserve wild Asian elephants, and strengthen long-term socio-ecological resilience.