Handicapping Literature in the United States, 1935–2010: A Search for Order in a Confusing World

On any given day at a racetrack, roughly one third of horseplayers win money and roughly two thirds lose. Almost no-one wins consistently. However, racing is not just about the money. Handicapping – solving the puzzle of which horse will win a race – is an intellectual contest, and the prize is believing that the puzzle has been solved in the best, most rational manner. Achieving this goal has given racegoers validation, feelings of success, and boosted egos in tough times. The methods used over the years can be charted through the instructional books and articles on the subject. Handicapping literature from 1935–2010 reveals a trajectory in step with economic, political, intellectual, and technological developments. This entailed an increasingly technical, scientific approach that reached its peak in the 1980s, when handicappers believed that a horse race could be reduced to a mathematical equation. By the 1990s, growing doubts about the infallibility of science undermined the concept of mathematical handicapping, and a qualitative approach emerged. Because qualitative techniques required artistry and a full-time commitment, only a small group were able to achieve validation from handicapping. This exclusivity alienated occasional racegoers, and horse racing crowds in the United States have fallen as a result.