Key result
SMART2 score moderately predicts post-CABG major cardiovascular events with a c-statistic of ~0.65 but underpredicts risk.
Why the study?
This study tested the potential of the Secondary Manifestations of Arterial Disease (SMART2) risk score for predicting 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events in patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting.
Does the preoperative SMART2 risk score accurately predict 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events and provide clinical net benefit in a racially diverse cohort of patients undergoing isolated CABG?
Cohort (n=27,443)
Yes
Does the preoperative SMART2 risk score accurately predict 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events and provide clinical net benefit in a racially diverse cohort of patients undergoing isolated CABG?
External validation in 27,443 US veterans shows the SMART2 score moderately discriminates 5-year MACE risk after CABG (c-statistic 64.7)—performing best in CKD patients—and offers net clinical benefit for guiding intensive secondary preventive pharmacotherapy despite underpredicting absolute event rates.
Answers are grounded in this paper and cite their sources.
SMART2 underprediction warrants caution for absolute risk estimates after CABG; leaves open its net benefit pending recalibration and broader validation.
Background We tested the potential of the Secondary Manifestations of Arterial Disease (SMART2) risk score for use in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting. Methods and Results We conducted an external validation of the SMART2 score in a racially diverse high-risk national cohort (2010-2019) that underwent isolated coronary artery bypass grafting. We calculated the preoperative SMART2 score and modeled the 5-year major adverse cardiovascular event (cardiovascular mortality+myocardial infarction+stroke) incidence. We evaluated SMART2 score discrimination at 5 years using c-statistic and calibration with observed/expected ratio and calibration plots. We analyzed the potential clinical benefit using decision curves. We repeated these analyses in clinical subgroups, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and polyvascular disease, and separately in White and Black patients. In 27 443 (mean age, 65 years; 10% Black individuals) US veterans undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (2010-2019) nationwide, the 5-year major adverse cardiovascular event rate was 25%; 27% patients were in high predicted risk (>30% 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events). SMART2 score discrimination (c-statistic: 64) was comparable to the original study (c-statistic: 67) and was best in patients with chronic kidney disease (c-statistic: 66). However, it underpredicted major adverse cardiovascular event rates in the whole cohort (observed/expected ratio, 1.45) as well as in all studied subgroups. The SMART2 score performed better in White than Black patients. On decision curve analysis, the SMART2 score provides a net benefit over a wide range of risk thresholds. Conclusions The SMART2 model performs well in a racially diverse coronary artery bypass grafting cohort, with better predictive capabilities at the upper range of baseline risk, and can therefore be used to guide secondary preventive pharmacotherapy.
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Deo et al. (2023) conducted a cohort in Patients undergoing isolated coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) (n=27,443). Preoperative SMART2 risk score vs. VA projected risk of mortality (VA-PROM) score and observed 5-year MACE rates was evaluated on 5-year major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE: composite of cardiovascular mortality, nonfatal myocardial infarction, or nonfatal ischemic stroke) (Harrell c-statistic 64.7; O/E ratio 1.45, 95% CI 63.8-65.5). The SMART2 score showed moderate discrimination for 5-year major cardiovascular events after CABG while underpredicting overall event rates.
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