What does this research mean for the field?

Climate shocks have asymmetric effects on rice production in irrigation-dominated systems, where autumn cooling shocks are more damaging than warming shocks are beneficial, and input intensification only partially offsets climate-induced losses. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.SUPPORTS_CONSENSUS.

What question did this study set out to answer?

To examine how asymmetric temperature and precipitation shocks influence rice yields in an irrigation-dominated agricultural system across historical policy and climate regimes.

August 27, 2026WaterOpen Access

Nonlinear Climate–Production Relationships in an Irrigation-Dominated System: A NARDL Analysis of Flood-Irrigated Rice

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Authors

MAMohamed Altabei AlboghdadySuez Canal University SASalwa Abbas MAMohamed Alashry

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Implication

Time-series econometric analysis reveals asymmetric temperature and rainfall impacts on flood-irrigated rice, indicating that input expansion cannot fully counter climate risks.

Key Points

To examine how asymmetric temperature and precipitation shocks influence rice yields in an irrigation-dominated agricultural system across historical policy and climate regimes.
Analyzed annual agricultural and climate data from 1961 to 2022 using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in Egypt's Nile Delta.
Decomposed seasonal temperature and precipitation into cumulative positive and negative partial sums alongside fertilizer use, harvested area, and structural-break tests.
Demonstrated a stable long-run cointegrating relationship with pronounced asymmetries, where autumn cooling shocks reduced rice production more severely than warming shocks enhanced it.
Identified that production gains from above-average rainfall surpassed the losses from rainfall deficits due to the buffering capacity of irrigation systems.
Revealed that while harvested area expansion and fertilizer intensification increased rice output, they only partially offset climate-induced production losses.

Cite This Study

Alboghdady et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a8fe98110c91c1e9262118f https://doi.org/10.3390/w18172098

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Implication

Time-series econometric analysis reveals asymmetric temperature and rainfall impacts on flood-irrigated rice, indicating that input expansion cannot fully counter climate risks.

Nonlinear Climate–Production Relationships in an Irrigation-Dominated System: A NARDL Analysis of Flood-Irrigated Rice

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

Nonlinear Climate–Production Relationships in an Irrigation-Dominated System: A NARDL Analysis of Flood-Irrigated Rice

Discussion

Member takes

Implication

Key Points

Cite This Study

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