Tracking long-term emissions of carbon and air pollutants from China’s tobacco curing industry and its future mitigation pathways

As the world’s largest tobacco producer, China faces potential environmental and health challenges from tobacco ( Nicotiana tabacum L. ) curing, an intensive yet poorly quantified and weakly regulated emission source. Based on continuous emission monitoring system (CEMS) measurements and field tests, this study develops a 2010–2022 prefecture-level emission inventory for carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), nitrogen oxides (NO X ), carbon monoxide (CO), particulate matter (PM), and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from the tobacco curing industry, and projects mitigation pathways to 2060. Emissions peaked in 2013, and by 2022 reached 5.1 Mt CO 2 , 19.6 kt SO 2 , 10.4 kt NO X , 81.2 kt CO, 3.3 kt PM, and 0.2 kt VOCs. These emissions are comparable to or exceeding those from energy-intensive industries like coking during tobacco curing season. Spatial clustering in Southwest China close to rural residential settlements implies non-negligible air and health impacts. These exposure concerns underscore the need for well-designed mitigation policies grounded in a clear understanding of emission trajectories and their driving factors. Our scenario analysis demonstrates that an integrated-emission-mitigation (IEM) strategy could achieve near carbon neutrality by 2060, alongside reducing air pollutants by over 60%, primarily through fuel substitution. These findings underscore production-side measures, particularly fuel substitution, as essential for synergistic carbon and air pollution mitigation in this fugitive source, while also alleviating environmental health burden in nearby communities.