Epidemiological status and developmental trends of sexual violence among children and adolescents aged 0–19 years: a global analysis and projections

BACKGROUND: Sexual violence against children and adolescents is a critical public health issue. It is urgent to assess the burden to facilitate targeted intervention efforts worldwide. METHODS: By using Joinpoint regression, frontier, and predictive analyses, we assessed the variations and trends in sexual violence burden among children and adolescents aged 0-19 years across different sexes, ages, and regions. RESULTS: From 1990 to 2021, global prevalence and DALYs of sexual violence among children and adolescents increased by 13.3% and 12.5%, respectively. However, the age-standardized rates (ASRs) decreased slightly by 3.0% in prevalence and 3.6% in DALYs. The sexual violence burden in children and adolescents remained consistently higher in females than males. For various age groups, the greatest increase occurred in the 10-14 age group, with a 20.77% rise in prevalence and a 20.40% increase in DALYs. In contrast, the greatest decreases in ASRs were observed in the 15-19 age group. Frontier analysis highlighted the countries (SDI > 0.85) with the largest effective distance and those (SDI < 0.5), but showing the smallest effective distance to control sexual violence among children and adolescents. Predictive analysis showed minimal fluctuations of the global ASRs of sexual violence among children and adolescents over the next two decades. CONCLUSIONS: The findings revealed differences in the burden across sex, age, and socio-economic development, which provided valuable insights into developing targeted intervention strategies and contributed to mitigating the adverse effects of sexual violence on this vulnerable population.