ICGPS V3.4: First Blind-Test Scorecard and Pre-Registered Forecast (26 Aug – 31 Dec 2026)

ICGPS V3.3 (registered 8 June 2026) separated earthquake TRIGGER (geomagnetic and tidal forcing) from MAGNITUDE (fault slip-deficit state). This update reports the framework's first complete blind test. Eight quantitative predictions (P1–P8) for the interval 8 June – 25 August 2026 were registered in advance; real observations were compared afterward. Results: the temporal skeleton survived (global M7+ count 4 vs. predicted 3–5; the Mindanao M6.5 aftershock arrived on day 19 of a predicted 30-day window; the northern Chile shallow megathrust remained silent as predicted; the single Kp≥7 storm of 3–4 July arrived outside the syzygy window, and the framework's conditional forecast—M7-class response only, no M8+—was exactly realized, with three of four M7+ events falling in the 10–60-day post-storm echo). Spatial targeting failed completely (0 of 4 M7+ events on the pre-registered watch list; three of four struck the Americas, ironically consistent with the framework's own eastward-migration statistic, which the forecast narrative had overridden). Two structural discoveries emerged: a Solar Heartbeat (the 27-day active-longitude rotation beating against the 29.5-day synodic month; both predicted returns produced flares landing on full-moon days, 2 for 2), and a natural control experiment on 14–15 June, when the strongest tidal superposition of the interval (perigee–new moon separation 3.6 hours, 357,196 km) coincided with a closed geomagnetic gate and produced zero M6.5+ worldwide—demonstrating that tides select timing but supply no energy. V3.4 formalizes the Spaghetti Principle (fracture time is set by loading and is statistically predictable; fracture location is set by unobservable heterogeneity), introduces magnitude-band-dependent gate tiers, demotes spatial forecasting to statistics-governed prior ranking, and pre-registers a quantitative forecast (Q1–Q10, falsification conditions F1–F5) for 26 August – 31 December 2026, including a newly identified phase lock: for the next four lunations, every predicted solar-longitude return coincides with a new moon, so every Earth-directed CME from the surviving active longitude should arrive in lunar days 2–8—the framework's M8 trigger zone.