Jamie L. Carson, Jeffery A. Jenkins, David W. Rohde, Mark A. Souva, The Impact of National Tides and District-Level Effects on Electoral Outcomes: The U.S. Congressional Elections of 1862-63, American Journal of Political Science, Vol. 45, No. 4 (Oct., 2001), pp. 887-898
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Carson et al. (2001) studied this question.
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