Dynamic Estimation of the Maximum Potential Wind Speed in the Bay of Tokyo Based on the Typhoon Potential Vorticity Bogussing System

In this study, the typhoon potential vorticity bogussing system (TYPVB) and high-resolution mesoscale meteorological model (MM5) are utilized to estimate the maximum potential wind speed in the bay of Tokyo. TYPVB can initialize the 3-dimensional well-matured typhoon structure for MM5 entirely consistent with the atmospheric dynamics, and MM5 can make it strike the arbitrary geographical area wherever powerful measures to prevent storm surge disaster are demanded. As a result of the appropriate settings of typhoon environment in TYPVB, it becomes obvious that well-matured typhoons which are modeled as Typhoon Vera (1959) causes a resultant wind speed of about 40m/s in the bay of Tokyo, where the worst wind speed is weakened by about 5m/s owing to the shadow effect of the upstream peninsula.