A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of Fusarium wilt of banana in a plantation system

Fusarium wilt of banana (FWB), caused by the soil-borne fungus Fusarium oxysporum f. sp. cubense , remains one of the most devastating diseases threatening banana production across Africa and worldwide. Understanding its transmission dynamics is essential for developing effective management strategies. In this study, a deterministic susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed-pathogens (SEIR-P) mathematical model is formulated to investigate the transmission dynamics of FWB in a banana plantation system, incorporating both banana plants and environmental pathogens populations. The effective reproduction number ℛ is derived using the next-generation matrix method, and stability analysis is conducted to determine conditions for disease elimination or persistence. Model parameters have been estimated using a synthetically generated dataset obtained by adding Gaussian noise to model simulation to mimic real-world variability with the help of adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method implemented in MATLAB. Local and global sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the model’s robustness to parameter values. Population level impacts of significant parameters were studied. The results indicate that recruitment of susceptible plants, plant-to-plant transmission, pathogen recruitment, and incubation rates positively influence disease spread, while removal of infectious plants reduce transmission. These findings highlight the importance of early detection and timely removal of infectious plants, together with improved sanitation practices that limit environmental pathogen recruitment, as effective strategies for controlling FWB in banana plantation systems.