What does this research mean for the field?

Novice entrepreneurs, driven by higher levels of overconfidence, are more likely to make radical risky pivots, whereas experienced entrepreneurs are more likely to make safe pivots. Novelty: ClaimNovelty.INCREMENTAL. Consensus alignment: ConsensusAlignment.NEUTRAL.

What question did this study set out to answer?

Investigate how founder experience and overconfidence influence decisions to pivot product development strategies under market uncertainty.

August 28, 2026Manufacturing & Service Operations Management

Experience and Pivoting in Entrepreneurial Product Development

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

JKJanne Kettunen KRKarthik Ramachandran

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Theoretical modeling reveals that inexperienced entrepreneurs pursue excessively risky pivots due to overconfidence, suggesting targeted mentorship can prevent costly product development errors.

Key Points

Investigate how founder experience and overconfidence influence decisions to pivot product development strategies under market uncertainty.
Constructed a decision-theoretic model evaluating entrepreneurial choices between persisting with an active product and pivoting to an alternative opportunity.
Modeled founder overconfidence alongside relative market uncertainties between the initial product and prospective pivot options.
Novice founders display heightened overconfidence and disproportionately pursue radical, high-risk pivots, whereas experienced founders selectively choose safer pivots.
Inexperienced entrepreneurs systematically commit development errors by pivoting prematurely during risky ventures while persisting excessively in safe scenarios.
Novice founders are more likely than experienced founders to defer safe pivot decisions until after initial product launch.

Cite This Study

Kettunen et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a914631d15324a1df3a9a04 https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2024.1178

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

August 28, 2026Manufacturing & Service Operations Management

Experience and Pivoting in Entrepreneurial Product Development

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark

Authors

JKJanne Kettunen KRKarthik Ramachandran

Discussion

Member takes

Overview

Theoretical modeling reveals that inexperienced entrepreneurs pursue excessively risky pivots due to overconfidence, suggesting targeted mentorship can prevent costly product development errors.

Key Points

Investigate how founder experience and overconfidence influence decisions to pivot product development strategies under market uncertainty.
Constructed a decision-theoretic model evaluating entrepreneurial choices between persisting with an active product and pivoting to an alternative opportunity.
Modeled founder overconfidence alongside relative market uncertainties between the initial product and prospective pivot options.
Novice founders display heightened overconfidence and disproportionately pursue radical, high-risk pivots, whereas experienced founders selectively choose safer pivots.
Inexperienced entrepreneurs systematically commit development errors by pivoting prematurely during risky ventures while persisting excessively in safe scenarios.
Novice founders are more likely than experienced founders to defer safe pivot decisions until after initial product launch.

Cite This Study

Kettunen et al. (2026) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/6a914631d15324a1df3a9a04 https://doi.org/10.1287/msom.2024.1178

View Full Paper

Ask AI

Bookmark