How Success and Failure Sequences Shape Entrepreneurial Pivot Decisions: A Conceptual Framework and Experimental Design

Entrepreneurial pivoting, defined as the deliberate reorientation of key elements of a business model, is examined as a recurring strategic decision made under conditions of uncertainty. The study aims to provide a theoretical explanation of how sequences of prior successes and failures influence predecision information search and the choice between strategic reorientation and perseverance. Drawing on organizational learning theory, the behavioral theory of the firm, and the concept of bounded rationality, an integrated conceptual framework is developed. Four theoretical propositions are formulated, suggesting that low overall success and recent failure increase the likelihood of pivoting and the intensity of information search directed toward strategic reorientation, while information search independently influences the final strategic decision and conditions this relationship. To empirically test these propositions, a scenario-based online experimental design incorporating four outcome trajectories and a token-based information search mechanism is proposed. The scientific novelty of the study lies in conceptualizing entrepreneurial pivoting as a path-dependent process and theoretically establishing information search as a mechanism linking accumulated experience to strategic decision-making.