Long-Term Forecasts for International Tourism

Modifications of earlier versions of models to make forecasts for world tourism allow us to trace the effects of changes in income and prices produced by and in each individual country considered in this model. At the theoretical level, in using a share approach these models could be viewed as similar to partial demand models based on the assumption of a multi-stage budgeting process. The new WTTOUR-2001 model is used to generate long-term forecasts of tourism imports and exports for 25 countries for the period up to 2020. It allows a more realistic simulation of the impact of political events such as the enlargement of the European Union.